When it seemed that Rafał Trzaskowski was standing in a lost position, Karol Mentzen, sorry, Nawrocki (although it is not known whether, outside Mentzen's antenna, he had yet requested a change of name from him) shouted out loudly "Hold me the Celtic Cross". A compromising tribute, which was paid to the Confederacy leader by the anti-script candidate PiS for president, is an excellent chance to evidence Nawrocki.
Nawrocki cut off from precisely all Mentzen's actions of the government created by the organization that set him up in the election. During the conversation with Mentzen, the government of the Law and Justice organization was actually presented as the worst in the 3rd Republic. It turns out that Kaczyński was constantly incorrect – 5 for animals, the Green Deal, NATO troops in Ukraine. The mistakes of the government of PiS and Morawiecki itself do not even want to exchange, due to the fact that they were made most likely all week. How can a candidate put up by a organization who was so frequently incorrect be supported? She most likely did it again.
Hurt and humiliated don't want a tyrant
It can be seen that it was a deliberate play, already planned during the election of the candidate. The PiS wanted to find a man who would attract an electorate to the far right in the second round. The Kaczyński organization bet the triumph of the alt-right in the first circular and won on it. Excellent discernment in Polish social realities, based not only on the intuition of leaders, but above all on in-depth investigation – this is simply a widely known advantage of the Law and Justice. So it would seem that on the YT channel at Mentzen's everything went as planned.
This would be possibly the case if the PiS chose individual from its right wall – for example Przemysław Czarnek. Or individual a small more average than a Lublin professor, but besides adored in the electorate. I personally believed that the best candidate of the Law and Justice for president would be loved by the people of Pisa (but not by the president) by Beata Szydło, who could easy cut off from the Morawiecki government, as she was removed from it in a painful way for her.
However, for cyclical reasons, the Law and Justice have placed it on a individual outside the party. Moreover, it was not recognized and respected Prof. Andrzej Nowak, but a wider unknown career, orbiting the Kaczyński environment. The Nawrocks, therefore, had uphill in the PiS electorate from the beginning, but his personality was most damaged.
In the iron electorate of PiS, the kibolski past, the brutal mentality and dubious interests are not at all well seen. They are to a large degree older people who were more frequently deceived or hurt than they were hurt. They do not anticipate a tyrant like Nawrocks, but a caring father or parent – that is why they liked it so much Szydło or Morawiecki, who were able to build specified an image, thanks to which even the assets of the erstwhile Prime Minister were for the written people to swallow.
According to the results of exit poll Nawrocki attracted 83 percent of PiS voters from 2023 and only 64 percent of Andrzej Duda voters from 2020. Yes, in the first case, it is the best consequence of all electorates, but only by little than 1.5 percent points better than the analogous consequence of Trzaskowski. However, in Nawrotki's case we are talking about the electorate, which is the most disciplined and most identifying with its organization from all groups of voters. Moreover, it is now besides highly mobilised – fear of the unitary power of Tusk And a loud but very bearable tv communicative of the Republic.
Of the 29 percent Nawrocki, the 2023 PiS voters were only liable for 25 percent, although they totalled more than 30 percent voting before the week. It's an almost accurate mapping of the gap that writers diagnosed with interior investigation in February of this year, which described Jacek Gądek in “Newsweek” – then the polling average of the organization was 32 percent, while Nawrocki polls were 25 percent. It was a large problem for the president at the time. Since then, small has improved in this respect – Nawrocki in the electorate of PiS inactive has uphill, and his good consequence is the effect of attracting fresh or far-right voters who were liable for respective points of his support.
In another words, Kaczyński's electorate voted as a candidate Navrocki, due to the fact that that's all he is. Only from the vote, due to the fact that that's the only one, not to vote, due to the fact that that's the only one, there's a very short way. Mentzen's performance cut her short. Nawrocki cut himself off from the party, liked in the iron electorate of the erstwhile Prime Minister Morawiecki, and even from all the quoted opinions of her undisputed leader Jarosław Kaczyński. Besides, he made a disgraceful tribute to the seemingly very young leader of another party. He presented himself as a yielding cyclical, who agrees with everything the interviewer says, just to get what he came for.
This performance can demobilize a very profoundly written people who had already looked at Nawrocki skeptically. Meanwhile, undisciplined and undisciplined Confederate voters will not give Nawrock more than 50% without the parallel mobilisation of the peri-script people. In the survey conducted on the Mentzen channel after talking to the head of the IPN, the ratio of the convinced to the unconvinced was 61 to 39 percent.
Asertiveness alternatively of return
The unexpected chance of winning the election opens up before Trzaskowski. 2 debates seem crucial – this Friday with Nawrock and Saturday with Mentzen. During the debate with Nawrocki he should abstain from attacking the Law and Justice itself in order not to mobilize the writing people. He could even do a fewer good bows to him or at least mention Jack Siewiera (former minister at Duda) who would be a associate of his law firm, which by the way is an highly apt move. He should also, as far as possible, cut himself off from Donald Tusk's government and convince himself that he will be completely independent, apart, and will not wrongly harm anyone to alleviate the fears of the writers. Nawrocki himself should attack frequently and decisively, but in specified a way as not to overheat it.
On Mentzen's channel, he should behave very assertively and get into a dispute with him. To attract his electorate without subjugating to it, but to refute his arguments. Many Mentzen voters are young people whose opinions and views are just forming. An effective win for arguments on Mentzen's channel can aid him to win much more Confederate votes than a subverting country, simultaneously mobilizing his own centre-left electorate, which will most likely besides watch the show crowdly.
On the occasion, Trzaskowski will present himself as a serious candidate who has his own opinion, inspires assurance and is not a cyclical. And these are the qualities of a good president – and the full other of Nawrocki, who presented himself like Nicodemus Dysma. In uncontested matters (sending Polish troops to Ukraine) Trzaskowski should agree and, on controversial issues among Poles (new competences for the EU, Ukraine's accession to NATO) should be nuanced accordingly. For example, by pointing out that Ukraine is presently entering NATO anyway. I don't gotta add that this curiosity list should absolutely not be signed.
The last week of the run might look something like this. Do not antagonize the people of Pisa, declare absolute independency from Donald Tusk and a fair approach towards each citizen and at the same time treat their own centroleft electorate with declarations about the implementation of his demands. And finally, to strike Nawrocki himself, to show him as a frivolous opportunist who has no merit to go to the palace and will do anything, even kneel before any young man, to benefit. It is besides essential to avoid Donald Tusk's engagement in the election campaign, due to the fact that the Prime Minister is Trzaskowski's biggest burden.
Nawrocki discovered himself on his own request, so that these elections for Trzaskowski were again to be won. Of course, if, along the way, his staff and the candidate himself do not make any more mistakes or go past the end of the run as almost all before the first round.
