April Cass Data Shows No Improvement In Freight Demand

By Todd Maiden of FreightWaves

Another period passed without signs a recovery in the fresh cycle was on the horizon. “Still waiting for it,” Cass’ April update on volumes and pricing set.

The ships component of the Cass Freight Indexfell again in the month, down 1.6% seasonally adapted from March and 4% lower year over year (y/y). The Tuesday date shown volumes were holding around the summertime 2023-January 2024 cyclic tough. The April reading was the value since January, which is typically the slowest part of the year and weaker than average this year due to respective winter storms.

A later Lunar fresh Year and the Baltimore bridge collapse were citted as detectors to require during the month. The study besides said additions to private Fleets are negatively affecting results at the for-hire Fleets.

“Private Fleets are now more actively competing for place freight to fillempty backhauls, lengthening below-trend for-hire requirements,” the study said.

The y/y associations for the ships index get easier in the coming months. The forecast is for the data set to decline 3% y/y in May. A prior forecast called for the index to turn affirmative by June, but that impressions in jeopardy now.

Cass’ expenditures index, which means all dollars spent on fresh inclusion fuel surcharges and excise charge, fell 16.8% y/y in April and 1.9% from March on a seasonally adapted base. Backing out the decline in ships implies rates were off 13% y/y in the month, which was the slamlest decline in implied rates since last May.

The y/y comps besides get easy this summer. The index is expected to decline 16% y/y in the first half of 2024 and 10% for the full year.

The Truckload Linehaul Index, which excludes changes in fuel and excise charge, declined 3.8% y/y but ticked 0.1% higher than the March reading.

The TL rate index includes both place and contract freight. It has mostly been flat for the past year.

“With place rates steady over the past respective months, downward force on the Larry contract marketplace is lowering, with any instances of contract rate increases bucking the downtrend recently,” the study said.

Schneider Nationalwas the lon carrier to study improvement in contractual rate negotiations during the first-quarter season. It said contract renewals turned affirmative in the period for the first time in six quarters, with pricing up by a low-single-digit percentage. However, it was besides fast to say that it’s “not calling an inflation in the market” yet.

The linehaul index’s two-year-stacked comp (to April 2022) was down more than 15%, which was the biggest decline always recorded in the data set.

“Goldilocks economical conditions of strong growth and disinflation are mostly holding, a rising tie which evenly should lift all boats,” the study said. “But at the moment, the freight growth being generated by the economy is being handled by railroads and private Fleets.”

Data utilized in the indexes is derived from fresh bill paid by Cass Information Systems, a supplier of payment management solutions. Cass processes throughly $40 billion in fresh payables anonymously on behalf of customers.