The results of the Left in the Euro-Elections are, everyone sees. In any case, as if it were not narrated, as if it were not convinced that “in partnership with KO and the 3rd Way we have actually stopped populists”, the consequence of the Sunday vote is simply a disaster for her. Moreover, showing a very dangerous trend. Sunday elections are another, in which the left-wing coalition has lost – since the 2019 elections in which it returned to the Sejm, it has already lost almost half the percent of support.
At the same time, it is worth looking a small closer at the results for the Euro-Parliament, due to the fact that the problems of the full camp are even better seen.
Last islands of support
Since 2019 there has been a problem with the increasing island support of the full left. The coalition is doing very poorly in the east and southeastern districts, its support is concentrated very clearly in respective areas: in western lands, the Dąbrowski Basin and the largest cities headed by Warsaw.
This trend is expanding from election choices. In 2019, from 3 east provinces, the Left introduced virtually 1 MP. In the territory comprising the Podlaskie voivodship and in 2 districts of the Podkarpackie (Krosnońskie and Rzeszowskie voivodship) it did not exceed the threshold of 5%. This year the European elections were even worse. Of the 13 constituencies to which Poland was divided in these elections, Left received support exceeding 5% in only five. This barrier could not be overcome even in the voivodships, which inactive in October 2023 guaranteed certain mandates: specified as Silesian or Kujawsko-Pomorskie.
The only territory where the Left made a two-digit consequence in the European elections was the only Greater Town District, Warsaw, where the coalition won 10.41 percent of the votes. European elections confirm the large-town character of the Left, a 10% barrier has managed to break through in all cities over 500 000 inhabitants. And it is this size of the city that seems to her in these elections that the limit of decent support, but for specified exceptions as Szczecin or Jelenia Góra, is not able to gain more support anywhere else than one-digit.
Unfortunately, there are 5 cities over 500 1000 inhabitants in Poland. And it is hard to build a unchangeable political position erstwhile it does not cope with their boundaries, especially erstwhile the ceiling in even the most favorable cities is respective percent of support. The Left must either increase support importantly in districts where it manages somehow, or learn to gain votes in the field, where it is disappearing more and more today.
What happened to Silesian?
Meanwhile, there is simply a reverse process: the Left loses its bastions. On Sunday, the most astonishing thing was what happened in the Silesian Voivodeship. In October, it gave the left 2 senators and 4 MPs. In the Sosnowiec district, it had the best score in the country, 21.6%. It has its presidential cities in Silesia: Częstochowa, Bedzin, Dąbrowa Górnicza. In the pre-election calculations, it seemed that Silesian after Warsaw and Wielkopolska would be the 3rd certain territory – with this knowing as part of the coalition distribution of seats on the lists it fell to the Lefties Together.
Meanwhile, the list of the Left gained 4.63% of votes there. Her leader, Maciej Konieczny, won little than 25 1000 votes throughout the voivodship. For comparison, the last-place runner-up Łukasz Litewka in the territory of Sosnowiec won 40,000 votes in October.
What happened? any say Kohut's effect. Śląskie in the Europarliament represented from 2014 to 2019 Łukasz Kohut from Spring Biedronia, a euro-deputy building its political brand on issues of Silesian identity. On the left, especially this 1 together, Kohut was ignored and attacked as a “libek” – he actually happens to be praised by Balcerovich, and together to call him “communists”. The surrender of the 1 essential in Silesia sparked a dispute in local structures, resulting in Kohut yet becoming a Citizen Coalition list. From the 3rd place on the list he made a second consequence on it and with the support of over 107 1000 votes secured himself a ticket.
Did the Left make a mistake pushing Kohut out of the letter? any voters, and especially the left-wing act, most likely like not to have a Euro MP from Silesia than to have an MP who has a good opinion about Balcerowicz and is actually calmly located on the left wing of KO – although this is most likely not a widely shared view. Did Kohut take with him the votes the left could number on? Or wouldn't he have done just like the Necessary?
Unfortunately, we can't find out. surely the transition to a stronger, able to fight for a wider spectrum of KO voters helped Kohut – this year he won somewhat more than twice as a Spring candidate in the same territory in 2014, erstwhile he was supported by 48,7 1000 voters. Kohut besides has a reasonably heavy regionalized support, little coping in the non-Silesian parts of the voivodship, including the Dąbrowski Zagłębie, considered the largest bastion of the left in the country.
By calculations Leszka Kraszyna suffered the biggest comparative losses compared to the elections to the Seymists Leftka suffered the Sosnowiec district, including electoral fortresses specified as Sosnowiec itself, Dąbrowa Górnicza or the Bedziński territory and Częstochowa district. The Mandate for the essential was so mostly lost in the non-Silesian part of Silesia.
Why was the list with the Needy at the top of the list little than expected? In these districts, fresh Left has city presidents, councillors, any structures. So he's got something to run for. The question of how these structures worked with a candidate not from the fresh Left, but with Together, whose entry into the Euro-Parliament would not have done anything for the local fresh Left – especially that The essential Predictedthat he does not even intend to enter the center-left of the Socialist and politician faction.
No, Left side doesn't do any better.
The defeat of the essential in Silesia besides ends most likely popular in parts of the left after the October elections, the communicative that the Left Together is doing better than the fresh Left, better knowing the needs of voters, doing better campaigns, and with incomparably smaller resources is able to deliver the desired results.
The arguments could be found to confirm this thesis. Dorota Olko from 4th place drew a second consequence in Warsaw and secured herself a ticket. In the Podwarszawski territory Joanna Wicha jumped Arkadiusz Ivaniak and in Kraków Daria Gosek-Popiołek Maciej Gdula. Together it increased its parliamentary representation by 1 person, and introduced 2 senators.
In these elections, the effect was no longer seen. Candidate Together put the election in, it would seem, a certain Silesian district. Paulina Matysiak in the territory comprising the full Łódź Voivodeship won only 11.6 1000 votes – by almost 6 1000 votes little than in October she made in the covering only part of the voivodship of the Sieradzki territory in the elections to the Sejm. A prominent MP against the background of the remainder of the Left political-media strategy – very strong support for the CPK, accepting invitations to written media – did not meet, at least not in these elections, with a affirmative consequence from voters.
The only candidate, who passed the leader of the list from the next place, was Dorota Kolarska, who in the Małopolska-holy territory with a small over 2,000 votes overtaken Andrzej Szejna, MP of Nowa Lewica from the Świętokrzyski district. Kolarska actually made the most ingenious and dynamic run among the candidates of the Left, presented herself in it as a competent European candidate. The run was visible on social media, the organization leaders were clearly active in it, the act declared trips to Kielce and Krakow with a certificate of voting rights in the pocket. However, this did not aid much due to the fact that the Left did not take the mandate in the district, it achieved support at 4.73 percent. The question is whether Together should not focus the forces invested in the Kolarska run on the essential Campaign, where the chances of a ticket were greater, but as it turned out, the mandate was not certain at all.
Given the overall result of the Left, it can be risked that the Common Governments of the Civic Coalition and the deficiency of large success in pushing their own demands are a problem for her. But it is besides not evident from the results that Together can number on any electoral bonus for deciding not to enter the government and settle down as its reviewer.
Power of proven names
The mandates were yet taken by Robert Biedron, Joanna Scheering-Wielgus and Krzysztof Śmiszek, politicians presenting a completely different left-wingness than the 1 from the left-hand side Together, by the combined act perceived as unnecessarily glued to the left-hand side representatives of “smiling Poland”.
The leftist veterans, erstwhile prime ministers Marek Belka and Włodzimierz Cimoszewicz, were besides amazingly successful. Belka won over 56,000 votes and 7.44% support in the Łódź district. It was close that it was from Łódź, alternatively than Wielkopolska, that Left took the 3rd mandate, although no 1 predicted specified a script in pre-election simulations. Cimoszewicz, who competed in the territory of West Pomerania and Lubuskie, won almost 53,000 votes and little than 7 percent of the support in the district.
This shows that the Left has an electorate respecting its past – Cimoszewicz was Prime Minister from 1996 to 1997, at a time erstwhile many young voters were not yet in the planet – and embodying its characters. The good results of Belka and Cimoszewicz may besides have been partially due to the structure of attendance in these elections – exit poll shows that it grew with the age of voters, that the composition of the Europarliament was mostly decided by voters of the older and older generation. It is good that the left inactive has an electorate in it, the problem is that it will shrink, and yet the young electorate, which managed to mobilize rather well in October 2023, despite mostly progressive views, does not request to discipline the vote for it in the next election.
All these problems – demography, island support, marginalization in subsequent districts, failure in 1 of the most favoured voivodships, deficiency of a bonus for both co-legislature and for reviewing the government on the side – make the consequence of the Left from Sunday even more worrying than would indicate support at 6.3%.
