Analysis of the Zionist advancement so far: American-Israeli aggression against Iran, by Sergei Pieeslegin.
1.Operation "Epic Fury" lasted 4 weeks.
The Blitzkrieg clearly failed.
The negotiations “in full progress” represent the collapse of diplomacy from the erstwhile era. The US reached an agreement with Iraq, withdrew their troops and then launched an attack on Iraqi territory, killing negotiators. Diplomacy is practically dead.
Iran has not changed its position, nor has the US. The war is on, without sight of the end.
2. Interesting events in the war
1. The Iranian air defence has rebuilt itself. The first attack on February 28 destroyed most of Iran's air defense, but it showed the ability to repair itself. Damages to F-35 and B-52 are presently reported. Trump explains this with “technical failures”, but this raises the question: why fight erstwhile equipment breaks even without enemy intervention?
2. The number of Iranian missiles reaching targets is increasing. The overall number of Iranian retaliatory attacks is decreasing, but the percent of those that penetrate targets is increasing. This means that the U.S.-Israeli air defence is overloaded and incapable to cope with the increasing influx of weapons.
3. Air parity has been established. Both parties shall endure losses, but may be supplemented if necessary. Iran is not limited by time, while the United States is strictly limited by political terms.
3. Effectiveness of Iranian air strikes and air defense
The first attack was a immense success in destroying commanders and objects. But then the Iranian air defence strategy stabilized and a parity was established.
Iranian missiles increasingly hit targets, damaging American bases and Israeli territory. Given the tiny size of the region, losses will proceed to increase. Key conclusion: the air offensive is stuck at a dead end and entered the trench phase.
4. "Air offensive stuck at dead end and war entered trench phase".
This is the main negative conclusion for the US. Iran can wage war for months or even years (it has 7 years of experience in the Iraq War). Trump doesn't have time for this.
Trump's support has already fallen to a historically low level, and the coffin creek (loss in land operations) has not even begun.
The longer the war continues, the more resources are wasted, and the worse for Trump personally and for his political position.
5. Waiting for a land operation against Iran
US dilemma:
According to regulations, a land operation cannot be initiated until the enemy's air defence is suppressed and an absolute air advantage is achieved. This requires another 3-6 months of air campaign.
Without the advantage of the air landing is impossible – this means any losses.
Iran is not willing to negociate and does not intend to make life easier for Trump. He has no motivation to surrender.
Trump will be highly inclined to require the military to execute a land operation, contrary to regulations.
6. How will the landing operation on Charg Island end?
Charg Island was listed as a possible target. However, landing and maintenance of the bridgehead are fundamentally different things.
The experiences of Russia and Ukraine – landing on the island of Zmienyj and operations close the Clinic – have shown that it is possible to get the bridgehead, but keeping it without communication control is impossible.
Historical Paralela: Operation Gallipoli (World War I) – a British landing on the Turkish Peninsula, completed by devastating defeat and evacuation.
Scale: The given 3,000 paratroopers are adequate to capture the island, but it is catastrophicly insufficient to offensive Iran. Much more forces are needed and the US has no time or resources to deploy them.
7. The Future of War
If we play by the rules: six months of the air offensive, six months of concentration of forces, landing and transition to the offensive – not earlier than autumn (later autumn). Is Trump prepared for a prolonged war of a year? Very dubious.
If we play without rules: a brawl landing operation (similar to Carter's failed hostage-taking operation in 1980). The consequence is predictable – large losses and strategical failure.
The most likely scenario: The United States will proceed to "successfully win" a war in the information space all day, fluctuating before the ground operation starts and seeking a way out of an impasse that is not yet visible.
for: https://t.me/s/peresleginserg ( 28.03.2026)
About the Author:
Sergei Borisovich Pereslegin (born 16 December 1960 in Leningrad) is simply a Russian literary critic and journalist, investigator and discipline fiction theorist and alternate history.[1][2] He is the recipient of literary awards.[3]
He graduated from the Faculty of Physics at Leningrad State University, specializing in atomic physics and simple particle physics.[4] He worked as a physics teacher at the School of Physics and Mathematics at Leningrad State University. Since 1985, he participated in the Leningrad Seminary for Young Writers discipline Fiction named Boris Strugacki. Since 1989, he has been active in strategy explanation at the investigation Institute for Systems.[source not available for 817 days][5]
Since the mid-1980s, Pereslegin's critical and literary works have been published in fanzines and subsequently in manufacture magazines. His MP for the books of leading Russian discipline fiction writers, including A. Lazarczuk, W. Rybakow, A. Stolarów and S. Lukjanenko, was published, as were prefaceted and MP in the series "Worlds of Strugack Brothers". In his articles and essays, Pereslegin offers an in-depth analysis of literary works in a cultural and sociological context. His articles on the work of the Strugack brothers and writers of the "Fourth Wave" deserve peculiar attention.[6]
In 1996, he was awarded the Bronze Snail, Interpresscon and Strannik-96 awards for the critical book “The Eye of Typhoon: The Last Decade of russian technological fantasy”, published in 1994 and containing the best material of the author from the 1980s and early 1990s.[6] He is besides a compiler and editor of books in the series "Library of Military History"[6]. Author of comments on B. Liddell Hart's books, M. Galaktionov, E. von Manstein, F. Sherman, Clausewitz and another classical works on military history. Head of investigation groups “Constructing the Future” (since 2000), “Petersburg School of script Planning” (since 2003) and RK39. [source not available for 817 days]
Supporter of the conspiracy explanation about the Moon.[7] The father of 2 children lives in St. Petersburg.[3]
for: Переслегин, Сергей Борисович
(choice and crowd. PZ)
