Local elections showed that social sentiments in Poland have not changed much in the last six months. In Poland there is simply a position war in which no 1 is able to carry out an effective attack on opposing positions. Importantis the strengthening of the Confederation as a full associate in this competition – definitely not the seasonal party. To the bare eye 1 can besides see the dying Left, which is of historical importance – we are talking about the group, which was the strongest in Poland for 60 years since the Second planet War.
Does the WIS have the worst behind or before?
The 5 different levels of power at the same time are so extended that everyone can easy announce success after them – there is always something. Even the Left has its own Świnoujście. Basically, the situation in Polish politics is akin present to the front of the war in Ukraine. After an effective counteroffensive of the Platform and the 3rd Way, thanks to which the PiS has lost power, there is simply a position war – the forces of individual parties are shelling themselves from trenches. Despite the change in power and everything that has resulted from it, the fight for public media, the Wąsik and Kamiński cases, the CPK and the climate policy of the EU, the protests of farmers and the transport industry, the activities of investigative committees, the social sentiment and support for individual parties have clearly not changed importantly since 1 October last year. If Poles had voted for the Sejm as they did to the Sejm, PiS would have 195 seats (1 more), KO 160 (3 more), 3rd Road 69 (4 more), Confederation 21 (3 more), and Left 15 (11 less). The same majority would form, a bit weaker (244 seats alternatively of 248), but KO and TD to governments without the Left would only deficiency 2 seats (today nine).
Let's start with PiSu as a organization that has been central to the Polish political scene for respective years. Its activists can in a way breathe relief – their pack has not been delivered yet. The failure of 2 Seyms out of 7 is simply a better consequence for the Jarosław Kaczyński organization than could be expected. Let us remind that between 2010-14 the PiS did not have any seismic, and 2014-18 only Podkarpackie. Now the Law and Justice has survived the failure of power and positions and the most hard elections for themselves without disaster. 34.27% is practically a repetition of the consequence from the 2018 akin elections – 34.13% – and 15 October – 35.38%. 181 provincial councillors and 2080 region councillors are a solid base to last the next 5 years.
At the same time, there is no indication that the Law and Justice Office will be any closer to returning to power today. The run saw that any PiSu politicians were trying to run in a more affirmative and life-affecting way (words specified as "so for development") alternatively of scaring Tuski-gestapowie or "new martial law", which brought them fruit. After Sunday results, however, PiSu's decision-makers can regain wishful conviction of their own strength and that "Poles have woken up and do not want Tusk", so just wait for power to fall back into their hands. I keep my diagnosis from January – the base, probable, though far uncertain script remains the takeover of the Presidential Palace by the current majority in 2025, and in the longer word (yet little certain, but we are only talking about what is more likely and little so) its governments to self-use in the area 2030-31. In order for this change of power to become more probable, it would gotta happen either the decomposition of the Law and the conversion of the arrangement of forces to (central) right-wing opposition, or a serious refresh of this formation.
We will see whether the fewer 1000 councillors who have just secured themselves for the next half a decade will be loyal to PiSu, but an crucial part of them will effort alternate projects or be tempted by fresh central power. After the decent consequence of the Kaczyński party, the appetite for experiments will most likely decrease, but 5 years is simply a long time – you can always come back if it doesn't come out. Theoretically, PiS has the worst of it. In this situation, Tusk will request to step up the "accounting" operation during the next year until the presidential election and effort to scope a wider audience with a message about PiS and abuses. So far he is doing it on average – confirms his base electorate, sustaining his anti-scriptive emotion, but deficiency of any effectivetuxing gun, which would not have been known before October 15, and which would now have been brought to light by investigative committees or prosecutors.
Confederation’s Chance
Krzysztof Bosak and Sławomir Mentzen's organization all the more hard elections – the first of its kind. Let's callback the mention point – in 2018 fresh Hope (then: Freedom) received 1.6% of the vote for the Provincial Sejm and the National Movement 1.3%. The current 7.23% means that the Confederation has established its position as a full associate in the fight on the Polish political stage.
This way of building subjectivity chosen by the Confederation is, of course, laborious and ungrateful. The parliamentary rule, usually setting a real threshold of 9-11%, resulted in 7.23% of the vote being translated into only 6 seats per country. This leaves a natural sense of distress, as with the fresh elections to the Sejm. Now besides a fewer Confederate activists active despite quite a few work, the mandate passed by the nose – as in the case of Tomasz Buczek in Rzeszów, where only 276 votes were missing, erstwhile in the same territory 4.3 1000 votes received a list of the Polish Defence Movement, and 10.5 1000 lists of the other Confederate of parts of the Unpartisan Local Governments.
The Confederation will only have the chance to co-organise in the Podlaskie Voivodeship, where its typical is the free electron Stanisław Derehajło. This may be a disappointment on the 1 hand, but on the another hand – as in the case of elections to the Sejm – allows you to stay innocent, avoid work for governance and translation from the coalition. It is affirmative to measure the direction in the form of beginning up to Unpartisan Local Governmentists. Only by engaging local activists in their orbit (as long as they are not utmost leftists) and presenting themselves as a substantive alternate option to local political-medial-business systems, the right has a chance to build its local strength, especially in cities.
Entering local politics is hard for beginners. For me, the illustration of this fact and the memory of this election will be the communicative of my friend, a local young patriotic activist powerfully active in the life of his tiny city, who first competed as a councilman and got in his single-mandate territory ex aequo First score. With precisely the same number of votes, the draw that pointed to the incumbent councilman, the candidate for the local mayor.
Elections to the European Parliament in 2 months are for a change a large chance for the Confederation. Maintaining support at a constant level in local elections avoids the emergence of negative emotions around the organization and the effect of "lost voice", in the past of Europe repeatedly murderous for the building-up organization of the alternate right. Now, for the time being, the wallpaper will feature themes typically "confederate" – EU climate policy, national sovereignty, immigration, relations with Ukraine (regarding the question of its membership and its consequences for Poland). Success in June is besides an chance for the Confederate to be placed in a position of force capable of playing a function in the presidential elections.
The chance is even greater that the Confederacy will be able to attack the Law and Justice for its policy towards the EU and the 3rd Road, for which it will be the most hard elections for a change. TD has its communicative for the local government elections (power and experience of PSL), presidential (personal popularity of Simon Holownia) or parliamentary (optional "moderate" and depolarization to the PiS-PO dispute). This is the absence of a clear decline in the popularity of the EU's climate policy, which Hołownia wanted to be herrold.
The defeat of the left. Confederacy on the National Front road?
The April 7 elections will besides take place due to the defeat of the Left. It was a organization that was the biggest force in Polish politics in the form of PZPR and SLD for sixty years since the Red Army took over Poland. She inherited immense financial and human resources. For decades, she was present in countless local arrangements. She had a favorable, same - inflicted communist nomenclature of media and business. Now she lost to the first-time Confederate local election starting from scratch. For the National Front, for years the French Communist organization was the mention point, and Jean-Marie Le Pen initially set himself the goal of catching up with the hated "red". In the 1980s he yet succeeded – the powerful communists (in France they were besides the number 1 organization after 1945) gradually went to the margin, and the national right became step by step a prime political force. besides for the Front, as for the Confederacy today, the key challenge was then to decision support from national to local level and to gain its footholds.
This “mijanka” has a large symbolic dimension and it is essential to enjoy it – in fresh times the Left was the most anti-national and anti-civilization force in Poland. Statements by Minister Kotula that “these elections will be about abortions”, oppositionary ideological propaganda and pushiness A Pole as if their main request in life was to go to the right and the left failed. Paraphrased by Gombrowicz – minister Kotula's diary looks most likely “Monday – Abortion. Tuesday – abortion. Wednesday – abortion. Thursday – Abortion".
Probably in the coming time we are waiting to absorb the bankruptcy mass after the SLD and Spring through the Civic Coalition, and then possibly emancipation of the organization Together. The consequence of Magdalena Biejat, who has already been announced as a candidate for president of the Republic of Poland, is besides a success in the genre “in the land of the blind one-eyed king” – Biejat despite large excitement and media support simply repeated in Warsaw the percent score of the Left from the parliamentary election (and even somewhat worsened it). In absolute figures, Biejat mobilized 67% of left-wing voters six months ago – for comparison more, due to the fact that 71% of PiSu voters convinced Tobias Bocheński, whose candidacy was rather widely recognized as a failed experiment, and Rafał Trzaskowski 92% of KO voters. This is Trzaskowski – not Biejat, not Bocheński, not Przemysław Wipler – consummated the deficiency of a candidate of the 3rd Way (which supported the current president of Warsaw). If we add voters KO and TD from October, the consequence of Trzaskowski would be akin to this Biejat and Bocheński – they gathered 69% of them. They were all likewise victims of lower attendance.
What about the cities? The right hand needs its Gibals
However, large cities stay a major problem for the widely understood Polish right. Of course, you can regulation against it – ultimately, in specified a situation since 2019 is even the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Viktor Orban besides has an opposition mayor in Budapest. In Poland, however, this phenomenon has gone highly far. Even PiS, even at the tallness of its power in 2018, was incapable to win in any city with more than 100,000 inhabitants. PiS, being 1 of the 2 strongest parties in Poland for 2 decades, ruling the country for 10 years. For comparison, I will again take a look through my French glasses – even the Marine Le Pen National Unity is able to win and have its mayor in 120 1000 Perpignan, though it has never ruled at national level and has been the most demonized and stigmatized, "extremely right" organization in half a century.
The problem was addressed more broadly in the context of Warsaw in the last text in our pages Jan Fiedorczuk. In my opinion, the problem is rather broad consent to mediocre results in large cities – no substance how large the failure is, we have patting on the back and an excuse – it is impossible in large cities. 1 cannot let cities go due to the fact that they have a large power of cultural and financial attraction (it is where fresh jobs are created). These large centres frequently make aspirations of local residents.
For example, in my Krakow, for the last 20 years, we have been utilized to status quo. Prof. Majchrowski won in the 2nd round, usually with a PiSu candidate, with an advantage of about 59% to 41% – clearly, but without declassification. Now nevertheless the grasped right woke up with her hand in a potty – on April 21 we will have a choice between the current head of the local Platform and the erstwhile head of the local Platform. The candidate of PiSu – each time different – was announced respective weeks before the election, was rather weak, won 19.8% – little even than the list of PiSu to the City Council (23%), much little than the candidate of PiSu in erstwhile elections (31%). The Confederate candidate was the same politician as always, but he gained 5% – besides little than his own list to the City Council (6%) and as much as 1/3 little than half a year earlier a list to the Sejm with himself at the head (7.5%). In absolute figures, this looked even worse – Konrad Berkowicz obtained 14.8 1000 votes, although in October the list of Confederations took 37.4,000, including himself as a single 24.2 thousand.
The 3rd road candidate who achieved only 3% was besides lost with the mole. It is clear to the bare eye that the voices of a crucial number of voters with right-wing and centre-right sympathies were taken by Łukasz Gibala – a erstwhile MP of the PO and the Palikot Movement, who has consistently been building a position in Krakow for respective years as an independent politician focused on the city, harshly criticizing president Majchrowski. For comparison, he was given a much higher score (26.8%) than his list to the City Council (15.6%). Although Gibala derives clearly from liberal-left environments – in these elections, he gained the support of the organization Together and introduced her activist to the City Council – he successfully built for the last decade an image of an independent, unpartisan, substantive and industrious activist dealing with the issues of the city alternatively than ideology. individual who can talk to any environment and is willing to communicate with residents. Gibala has run for city president for the 3rd time, each time achieving a better result. Now he entered the first time in the 2nd circular and even if he lost in it, he would proceed to be a councillor and 1 of the opposition leaders. Of course, he has large money on his side – he is the boy of a millionaire and entrepreneur. But his strength is besides a consequence, patience and skillful handling of his image.
Under these conditions, putting candidates from another locality or ideologically clear national politicians will almost surely not bring any environment to the right of success. If the right wants to accomplish success in large cities, it should alternatively effort to grow in individual means its Gibals – people focusing on self-government policy, recognizing the problems of their community. Be patiently shown as open to different environments by local leaders, representing the city more than any national party, and at the same time self-incorporated, not as tiny marketing products thrown in ad hoc, passively copying the left. Candidates who will be able to vote due to the fact that they will be able to impress them will consider them competent and worthy to represent the centre, and their support will not undermine his sense of belonging to the elite.
The right in urban policy should be ready for wise compromises to build coalition capacity and search to gather in its orbit all opponents consumed status quo. Finally, it's better to have a vice president than to be in eternal opposition. As Jan Fiedorczuk wrote – a better centre president or somewhat ideologically neutral, but open to cooperation with the right than another typical of the liberal-left establishment. A affirmative example can be the Chorzów, where the president was avoided organization patches Simon Michałek, 1 of the leaders of the cheering community, the creator of the household Sector at the Movement Stadium – a local football club. In 5 years most likely in many cities long-term presidents will gotta leave – the 2 word limit introduced in 2018 will enter into force (unless regulations change by then). That time must not be wasted. Local leaders request to start creating now.
