Poland faces a deep demographic crisiswhich, if decisive action is not taken, could lead to a permanent collapse of the economy, the pension strategy and the social structure. According to forecasts by the Central Statistical Office and the United Nations, the population in Poland may decrease by 6.7 million people by 2060, and by the end of this century – fall even to Only 19 million residents. It means losing almost. one 3rd of the current population.
It's not a fingerprint, it's a fingerprint. the consequences of long-term trendsWhich have been ignored for years, present they begin to reap their harvest.
Departure at an alarming level
The demographic crisis didn't start yesterday. Its beginnings go back to 1990sWhen is that? fertility rate in Poland, it began to fall systematically below the assurance level Generation replacement (2.1 kid per woman). Now it oscillates around values 1,4-1,5And there were years erstwhile it fell less than 1,3. This level of fertility means that without immigration or another compensation, the population will inevitably shrink.
That's what happens. increasing deaths♪ Which is present ♪ exceeds births. Year 2024 brought evidence difference between these indicators, confirming the trend of the alleged natural depopulation.
Emigration of young people – double loss
Nor can we ignore the phenomenon that further exacerbates the crisis: emigration of young Poles. Thousands of educated citizens leave the country all year looking for better surviving and working conditions abroad. This. double punch for demography: Poland loses not only present citizens, but besides their future childrenWho would be born in the country if these young people stayed.
Economy Under Pressure
The effects of this situation are already felt by the economy. There are no hands to work – especially in industry, construction and the service sector. Reduced number of people of working age leads to decrease in productivity, lower GDP and weakening the competitiveness of the country.
Dr Tomasz Lasocki from the University of Warsaw emphasizes that lack of investment in education and lifelong learning. “When all individual becomes a strategical resource, it is crucial to prepare him decently to work in a modern economy,” says the expert.
Pension strategy in question
However, the most dramatic consequences of demographic collapse may concern pension system. It is now based on the rule of intergenerational solidarity: workers finance retirement benefits. But if the proportion of people of working age to those of post-production age It's gonna get worse.The full strategy will become inefficient.
Risk? No pension paymentswhich will translate into a sharp decline in elder surviving standards. Experts request equalising the retirement age of women and men and adjustment of the benefit calculation mechanism to fresh realities. The problem is that these are unpopular decisions – and thus politically difficult.
An ageing society is spending more and less
Life expectancy is simply a affirmative accomplishment of civilization, but at the same time another challenge for the state. Older society requires more medical care, medicines, rehabilitation, and long-term carewhich generates expanding costs. Simultaneously reduced taxation base, which reduces budgetary receipts.
Immediate household action needed
The experts agree: only a comprehensive and long-term household policy can curb negative trends. You need:
- Real financial support for families, not only symbolic benefits;
- Facilitation for young parents – access to nurseries, flexible forms of employment;
- Stability of employment and improvement prospectswhich will encourage young people to stay in the country and start a family.
Education as the foundation of the future
Reform of the education system This is another key pillar. Investments in education of children and young people, Developing the competences of the future and the availability of lifelong learning can importantly rise Public productivity. Thus, even with less workers, it would be possible to keep a competitive economy.
Flexible labour marketplace and fresh migration policy
Flexible working conditions – e.g. by promoting distant or shorter working time – can aid reconcile work and household life. This is peculiarly crucial for women who are more likely to quit their careers due to childcare.
Additionally, Poland should seriously consider a fresh migration policy. Immigration of skilled workers could partially alleviate demographic pressure and Completing labour marketplace shortcomings.
Conclusions: last minute for action
The demographic crisis is not a distant forecast - it is already ongoing. The deficiency of reaction of the state will consequence present catastrophic consequences in 20, 30 or 50 years. past of Western countries shows that you can reverse adverse trends – but this requires consequences, political courage and broad social consensus.
It's time to decide now. Each year without change is another step towards irreversible effects.
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