On June 30, the first and on July 7, the second circular of the French parliamentary elections took place. They brought an unexpected triumph to the left, united under the sign of the fresh People's Front (NFP), but the first euphoria rapidly turned into a headache. The Left had the largest number of deputies, but it lacked almost hundreds of mandates for a stand-alone parliamentary majority.
This put the People's Front in a hard position, even if you skip complicated process of selecting a joint prime minister candidate – finally, a compromise proposal proved to be Lucie Castets, a wider public activist. The problem is that the president, whose prerogative is to appoint the Prime Minister, hands out the cards in French politics.
Many names, no with adequate support
However, Parliament may dismiss the presidential denomination if a adequate number of deputies support the vote of distrust. That stopped Macro from imposing his candidate, forcing the president to think highly long. First, the Olympic Games were utilized as an excuse, but even after they had finished, it took weeks before serious candidacy began to appear for the fresh tenant of Matignon Palace, the seat of French prime ministers.
Among another things, Bernard Cazeneuve, who had already served as Prime Minister at the end of François Hollande's presidency, was erstwhile represented by the right wing of the Socialist Party, which he left in protest against her cooperation with France the Insubordinate. The possible candidacy of the erstwhile socialist would be an effort to break the unity of the People's Front, but seemingly Macron did not find an agreement with the centrelevica and considered specified a script unrealistic, due to the fact that Cazeneuve had rapidly disappeared from the group of favorites.
In view of the deficiency of prospects for obtaining support even though part of the NFP, jointly demanding the reversal of the main reforms of the last 7 years (from pension at the head), Macro started looking at the right. Xavier Bertrand, an crucial politician closer to the centre of the wing of Conservative Republicans (LR), attracted his first attention. His nomination would cement an alliance of macronists with the right, functioning de facto since the erstwhile parliamentary term. The problem is that the presidential camp and the LR are far from the parliamentary majority and they request at least the neutrality of 1 of the another options: left or nationalists. no of them were willing to accept Bertrand, so they reached for another name.
Old Conservative to rescue the presidential camp
It fell on 73-year-old Michel Barnier. He's a professional politician, always representing the conservative right. At the age of 27, he became a deputy for the Gaullist UDR, later serving as Senator and Euro MP, and in the meantime he entered the government respective times and was liable for the environment, agriculture, abroad and European affairs. Despite a rich national CV at EU level, he was the most successful: he was Commissioner, Vice-President of the European Commission, and during the brexit the main negotiator on the part of the EU. Prior to the 2022 presidential election, Barnier applied for the nomination of his party, but unsuccessfully, and it seemed that his rich political career would end there.
Now, however, an experienced politician went to Matignon, due to any crucial qualities. As a repeated minister and vice-president of the EC, he enjoys the respect of a large part of the French political scene, but besides the EU institutions, calming them after months of instability in France. Macron is guaranteed to keep his economical and social policy – Barnier full supports expanding the retirement age and lowering the wealthiest taxes. Moreover, it occupies sufficiently conservative and anti-immigration positions that it is able to gain the support of a more extremist right as well. For the presidential camp, it is so an perfect Prime Minister, especially since, due to age and erstwhile failure, it will not be a threat in the context of the 2027 presidential election.
On the another hand, critics of Macron's decision point out that a organization politician was appointed as Prime Minister, who received little than 7% of the vote in the last election and has only 39 seats with 577. So it is hard for Barnier's government to be entrusted with the task of fulfilling the will of the nation – the French voted against the Liberal President, taking the majority of Parliament and waiting for a different political change. Instead, they will receive a Prime Minister who is in many respects the personification of the establishment. However, this would not be possible without an unexpected alliance of enemies to date.
Macron and Le Pen united against the left?
The government of Macronists and Conservatives is formed with the support of nationalistswho announced that they would not participate in the attempts to dismiss Barnier from his post as announced by the left. The erstwhile word of office has already shown that France can be ruled without a parliamentary majority (using e.g. Article 49.3), unless the majority of MEPs vote in favour of a vote of distrust for the government. As long as the National Unity (RN) Le Pen retains favorable neutrality, Barnier is safe and heavy anti-immigration policy should guarantee it.
The fresh Prime Minister has been demanding migration limits for years, so in the close future it is expected that France will intensify its efforts in this respect. At the same time, everything points to the continuation of the policy of belt tightening and social cuts. The acceptance of Barnier and the agreement with the Liberals is further evidence of the social bonnets being dropped by French nationalists and the strengthening of their alliance with at least part of the elite. RN has the support of many billionaires, including media magnate Vincent Bolloré, who He had fingers in Le Pen's strengthening organization to break inside the LR. This in turn has a translation into the RN economical program. The organization had late returned to the economically liberal Marion Maréchal, before the final election social demands were little exposed than in erstwhile campaigns, and Barnier's support heralds the surrender, for example, on pension reform.
The question of how this improvement will be addressed by voters Le Pen, who hatred the Macron administration and voted for RN with religion in the anti-systemism of the nationalist party. It abruptly turns out that Le Pen respects the European Commissioner, a typical of the establishment, who supports austerity and who is only willing to compromise in migration policy. Convincing the electorate to be right may not be easy. At the same time, Macro will gotta explain his ruling based on an alliance with the far right, against which he was to be the best defense.
This represents a large chance for the left to present itself on the 1 hand as the last faithful force to the Republican front, and on the another hand as the only viable alternate to macronism and neoliberal reforms of fresh years. While the National Unity will balance in a paradoxical position, criticizing a government that owes its existence to nationalists, the People's Front will not inhibit anything. It will be the only 1 to keep consistency in anti-government declarations and actual actions. A possible monopoly on opposition is the best that can happen to the left before the 2027 presidential election, and the only uncertainty remains whether the NFP's interior divisions will prevent this chance from being used.
